Commercial ships remain docked at Port Sultan Qaboos near Qaboos Port on June 21, 2026 in Muscat, Oman.
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Shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has slowed since US President Donald Trump’s embargo took effect last week, with ship owners increasingly avoiding one of the world’s most important energy corridors as the war between the US and Iran escalates.
Strait crossings have dropped significantly in the database of many ships with renewed US strikes on Iran, Tehran’s announcement of a total ban on maritime traffic and new attacks on commercial ships have prompted operators to reassess the risks of entering the Gulf.
Lloyd’s List Intelligence recorded just 53 sailings in the week to July 20, down 66% from 157 the previous week. The movement of tankers and gas carriers, which are vessels responsible for transporting Gulf crude oil and liquefied natural gas, decreased to 30 places from 90.
Kpler’s data similarly show declining activity almost immediately after the onset of inhibition. Daily crossings, which had averaged more than 20 vessels before July 15, dropped to 16 that day before falling to single digits on July 16. Traffic remained light throughout the week, with a gradual recovery.
The latest decline reverses weeks of gradual normalization after a mid-June ceasefire encouraged ship owners to resume Gulf voyages.
Instead, renewed fighting has also nearly cut off the waterway that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil consumption.
“Things have slowed down a lot as tensions have started,” said Bridget Diakun, senior risk and compliance analyst at Lloyd’s List Intelligence. “That’s not surprising – people are taking a step back and reevaluating, as you would expect.”
However, the traffic did not disappear completely. “Everyone has a different appetite for risk,” Diakun said. “We are still seeing tankers coming in and out, they are not completely safe yet.”
Instead of a slow recovery, shipping movements are likely to continue to come in “flutter waters” as shipowners seize short windows of perceived safety before retreating again whenever tensions flare, he said.
Data from S&P Global painted a similar picture. Just 40 ships crossed the strait between July 17 and July 19, an estimated 13 times a day, and weekly traffic through July 19 was down nearly 50% from the previous week.
Commercial vessels still accounted for more than 70% of traffic during this period, although only about one-third were assessed as complying with maritime restrictions. Ships linked to Iran and subject to sanctions continued to dominate most movements, suggesting that international ship owners are no longer willing to return.
“The latest increase shows that hopes for an immediate opening of the Strait were premature,” said Saul Kavonic, head of energy research at MST Marquee.
“Conflicts and renewed blockades have put the conflict back on an escalating path,” he said, adding that the flow of Hormuz had dropped to about 15% of pre-war levels. Oil could return to $100 a barrel if the current intensification of fighting continues for several weeks or if the region’s energy infrastructure is attacked, he told CNBC in an email.
