JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon said investors were underestimating the risks facing the global economy and that they would not buy equities or US Treasurys long ago at their current prices.
In an hour-long interview with Wilfred Frost released late Monday, Dimon said markets are not fully accounting for a growing list of global and financial threats.
“I think those risks are probably bigger than some people think,” Dimon said, pointing to the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, tensions between the US and China, and increased military spending at a time of growing government deficits.
Asked if the markets are at risk of a major shock, Dimon said it is difficult to know exactly which risks are already visible in commodity prices.
“It is possible that something is baked, but what is not baked is what really happened,” he said.
Dimon, who heads the world’s largest bank by market cap, often warns the public about the economic dangers he sees.
Jamie Dimon, chief executive officer of JPMorgan Chase & Co., speaks during the Institute of International Finance 2025 annual membership meeting in Washington, Oct. 16, 2025.
Samuel Corum Bloomberg | Getty Images
His latest comments are at odds with investors’ recent willingness to look past wars, prices and other shocks. I S&P 500 it has returned nearly 10% this year as consumers continue to spend, inflation has eased and investors have embraced artificial intelligence trading.
Last week, JPMorgan Chase and its peers posted blockbuster quarterly results powered by rising commercial and investment banking income, bolstering the view that the US economy has weathered the country’s recent turmoil better than many expected.
Dimon acknowledged in an interview with “The Master Investor Podcast” that the global economy is stronger because of lower energy dependence than in previous years, but cautioned that that does not eliminate the possibility of a sudden tipping point.
“It may take more straw on the camel’s back to make that point,” he said. “Even with the current war starting again, maybe that’s not enough to do.”
America’s persistent budget deficit will eventually force a contraction, which could raise interest rates, Dimon said.
“My view is that it will be a problem,” he said, predicting that interest rates will rise as bondholders seek greater compensation to be able to pay off the government’s debt.
Stocks, AI cycle
When asked, Dimon said he would not buy Treasurys any time soon: “Personally, no,” he said.
Even if inflation returns to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, “the 10-year bond should probably be 4% to 4.5%,” he said, adding that he doesn’t see an increase in Treasury rates.
He was equally vigilant in the cells. While he might consider individual stocks if they were a “great investment,” Dimon said he wouldn’t be a buyer of the broader market at current valuations.
Dimon also struck a moderate tone on artificial intelligence, comparing today’s growth to the early days of the Internet.
“The amount of money spent is huge. Will it pay off completely? Maybe, just like the internet does,” said Dimon.
He also pointed out that during the growth of the Internet, the old players like Yahoo and Netscape faded while the ones that eventually won like. Google again Facebook it appeared later.
“Is it going to pay off the way you expect and the schedule you expect? Absolutely not,” Dimon said.
