The security situation in the Strait of Hormuz has returned to “very serious” for oil tankers after Iran launched several attacks on vessels last week, the CEO of a maritime risk services company said.
“We’re seeing a decline in traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and right now shippers are more worried than ever,” said Dimitris Maniatis, CEO of Athens-headquartered Marisks, at a Lloyd’s List Intelligence forum this week.
“No one is willing to budge,” Maniatis said.
At least nine ships have been attacked since July 6 as Iran tries to force ships to sail off Hormuz in its territorial waters instead of the route along the coast of Oman protected by the US military, according to data from the International Maritime Organization, a United Nations body.
One seafarer was killed and three others were injured in an attack on the Al Bahyah crude oil tanker off the coast of Oman on Tuesday, according to the IMO. Eleven sailors were injured on the same day in an attack on the Mombasa B, also a crude oil tanker sailing near Oman.
The Iranian attack used anti-ship missiles, said Jakob Larsen, chief security officer at BIMCO, one of the world’s largest shipping organizations.
“All this affects the workers and right now they are not very happy to deal with it no matter what they were promised,” Maniatis said. “It’s no longer about money. It’s no longer about any other higher calling. It’s about the fear that dominates decision-making right now.”
The U.S. military disabled an unloaded oil tanker on Wednesday after retaliating against Iran this week, according to the U.S. Central Command. The IM/T Belma flagged in Curacao did not issue many warnings as it passed through international waters towards the Iranian island of Kharg, Centcom said.
The traditional route through the middle of Hormuz, known as the diversion system, is still too dangerous for ships to use due to the threat of mines, Larsen said.
“When a mine explodes, it usually happens under the ship,” he said. “The mine is a very powerful weapon, so it is very dangerous for ships to enter a minefield.”
Hormuz traffic in a flash
President Donald Trump said on Tuesday that Hormuz is open to all ships except those of Iran after the US embargo was lifted.
“It’s open if people want to go through it,” Trump told Fox News in an interview. “We are not opening Iran. It is the only one that is closed. It was closed in Iran, inside and outside, but it is open now.”
But fleet tracking firms have seen traffic decline. Hormuz has also closed and a number of ships crossing its transponders have been switched off, according to Lloyd’s team of analysts monitoring the current.
Traffic fell to a three-week low, according to data from intelligence firm Kpler. Vessel traffic dropped to eight on Thursday, down from 15 the previous day, Kpler said. More than 100 ships sailed through Hormuz every day before the US and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.
The US launched six rounds of airstrikes against Iran in retaliation for the tank attack. Tehran responded with missile strikes targeting US allies in the Gulf. Iran and its Houthi allies in Yemen are now threatening to block shipping in the Red Sea, which has become a key route for Saudi oil exports during the war.
“Unfortunately, it looks like we’re on an upward trajectory and the situation could get worse over time,” Larsen told CNBC.
Marines need confirmation
The escalation of hostilities comes as the US and Iran argue over how Hormuz should be reopened under a cooperation agreement they signed on June 17. Tehran promised safe passage for ships in the crisis, but the deal did not specify which routes it should use.
Shipping firms need credible assurances from Iran and the US that Hormuz is safe, Larsen said. If there is no deal, the alternative is that the US continues to carry out strikes on Iranian missile batteries, drone operators and gunboats, he said. Traffic may rise again if shippers believe the US has successfully downplayed the threat from Tehran, the analyst said.
Shipping companies have different appetites for risk, with some willing to go through Hormuz and others staying further afield, Larsen said.
But the decision to pass through Hormuz is not limited to “the owner of the ship sitting behind his desk,” said the analyst.
“It also requires the workers to really agree,” he said.
