Here are 3 big things we’re watching in the stock market next week
Wall Street enters another shortened week of the trading holiday after a few heavy days of AI trading. The health of the labor market will be more focused on investors. Within our portfolio, there is a report of self-interest or break-even that will determine whether to hold the stock. The market will also be weighed down by the violence that has erupted in the Middle East, although the US and Iran have agreed to a 60-day moratorium while negotiating a lasting end to the four-month-old conflict. The increase over the weekend comes after the departure of tankers in the Strait of Hormuz last week, which led to a recovery in oil prices. US WTI crude on Friday stayed below $70 a barrel for the first time since the war began on February 28. The international Brent oil standard, meanwhile, fell by 22% in June, at the pace of the biggest monthly decline since March 2020, at the beginning of the Covid-19 pandemic. A dramatic drop in oil prices as they reopened has helped ease concerns that the Federal Reserve will need to raise interest rates more often later this year to curb inflation. For investors, the question heading into the trading week is whether the outbreak of attacks – first by Iran on Thursday, followed by retaliatory US actions – affects traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and oil prices. On social media Sunday morning, President Donald Trump threatened Iran with annihilation. Now, here’s a closer look at what to expect from Nike’s upcoming economic data release and earnings report. 1. Economic updates: Apart from any additional events related to Iran, this week’s major macroeconomic reports can be divided into jobs and production. On the jobs front, we’ve got the May JOLTS (Jobs Opening and Labor Turnover Survey) out on Tuesday, followed by payroll processor’s private ADP report on Wednesday and the government’s nonfarm payrolls report on Thursday. These two were released in the month of June. The JOLTS report is noteworthy because it provides insight into labor market dynamics by tracking job openings, hiring, terminations, layoffs/layoffs, and other causes of separation. However, it is the smallest result of the three labor market reviews. At this point, the data is a month old and we already know the amount of surplus jobs added to the economy in May. The response, we read on June 5, was stronger than expected – 172,000 before any updates. The ADP report on Wednesday is an appetizer of what is to come on Thursday. The Department of Labor’s non-farm payrolls report is big, and we get it early this month as the market is closed on Independence Day Friday. This is where we get the rest of the private sector and government job additions for June, as well as a host of data including wage growth, labor force participation, and unemployment rates. The US is a consumer-based economy, with two-thirds of gross domestic product coming from personal consumption. The more people work, and the more money they make, the greater the potential for economic growth. As of Friday, according to FactSet, economists forecast a gain of 87,500 wages, with the unemployment rate unchanged at 4.3%, and hourly earnings up 0.3%. Wall Street, of course, is always trying to get ahead of everyone else, which is why the ADP employment survey is the second most important report of the week. While it may only report private sector wages, and not from an official government source, investors are still looking to it for clues on where the labor market stands to help position the nonfarm payrolls report later in the week. As of Friday, economists are looking for an ADP report that will show the addition of 92,500 jobs, according to FactSet. On the manufacturing side, we have the Institute for Supply Management’s monthly manufacturing report due out on Wednesday, followed by the Census Bureau’s full report on factory orders on Thursday. Of these two, the ISM purchasing managers’ index (PMI) will influence the thinking of investors in the market. Because the report provides forward-looking commentary from industry sources, it is referred to as a leading indicator. In fact, on Thursday night, FedEx Freight CEO John Smith referred to the ISM PMI as something they use to help gauge demand and manage business. Factory orders, on the other hand, strictly cover what happened in the reported month, making it a lagging indicator. While it is useful to track the economy over time, the market will always value forward-looking information over backward-looking information. 2. Nike’s earnings: It’s been pretty quiet on earnings, as we’re still a bit out of the loop when banks start reporting and officially start the next earnings season. However, Nike’s fourth quarter release on Tuesday night is very important to us. The stock has been crushed this year, and with shares trading at their lowest level in more than a decade, the market is not expecting much. Part of the reason is that Nike already told the Street last week that “fourth quarter results are expected to be in line with previously provided guidance,” if it does not include a one-time benefit from a tax refund. That disclosure came alongside news that Pfizer CEO David Denton will replace Matthew Friend as CFO. The goal of providing that analysis is to reassure the market that the CFO change is not related to anything bad happening with the ledger. As a result, the big changing aspects of Tuesday night’s report will include sales trends in China, where Nike has struggled in the face of local competition, and direction ahead. As Jim Cramer commented at our June Monthly Meeting, our patience has worn thin with this disappointing situation. This is why this is a make or break quarter; perhaps we see material progress in reform, or we will be forced to look for a better place to put our money to work. As of Friday, analysts polled by LSEG expect Nike to report earnings of 13 cents per share on revenue of $10.86 billion. 3. The casting is complete: Honeywell Aerospace begins trading on its own Monday, closing a long-awaited spinoff from the company now known as Honeywell Technologies (formerly known as Honeywell International). Even before Honeywell announced in February 2025 that it would spin off its luxury aircraft unit into a private company, Jim had been urging the company to restructure its portfolio. The main reason why was that its conglomerate nature was hiding the true value of Honeywell Aerospace. Aerospace is an attractive industry, and the breakup of the old General Electric has been incredibly beneficial for GE Aerospace stock. Now, we’re finally getting that clean plane stock from Honeywell, allowing the market to fully appreciate its growth prospects and find the right valuation. Shareholders will receive one Honeywell Aerospace (ticker: HONA) for every two Honeywell (ticker: HON) shares they own. The Club has 440 shares of HON. We plan to own shares in both Honeywell Aerospace and Honeywell Technologies, which specialize in business and industrial automation. On Friday, RBC Capital initiated coverage on Honeywell Aerospace with a buy rating of equal and a price target of $300, which represents a 36% upside from where HONA stock was issued on Friday. Next week Monday, June 29 Before the bell: No note reports After the close: AeroVironment (AVAV), Concentrix (CNXC) Tuesday, June 30 FHFA home price index at 9 am ET May JOLTS at 10 am (STZ), Progress Software (PRGS) Wednesday, July 1 ADP independent payments at 8:15 am ET ISM manufacturing PMI Pre Steel: General Mills (GIS), FactSet Research Systems (FDS), UniFirst Corporation (UNF) After the close: No reports of note Thursday, July 2 Non-farm payrolls report without claims at 8:30 am ET Weekly ET Factory orders at 10 am ET Before the bell: Lindsay Manufacturing (LNN) After the close: No reports of note Friday, July 3 The US stock market is closed in celebration of Independence Day (Jim Cramer’s Charitable Trust is long NKE and FDXF. See here for a full list of stocks.) As a BC Cramer subscriber you will receive Cranger Invest from Jim. make a trade. Jim waits 45 minutes after sending a trade alert before buying or selling stock in his charity portfolio. When Jim talks about a stock on CNBC TV, he waits 72 hours after issuing a trade warning before making a trade. THE PRIVATE INFORMATION OF THE BURNING CLUB IS SUBJECT TO OUR TERMS AND CONDITIONS AND PRIVACY POLICY, AND OUR PRIVACY POLICY. NO LEGAL LIABILITY OR OBLIGATION EXISTS, OR IS CREATED, BY YOUR ACCEPTANCE OF ANY INFORMATION PROVIDED BY CONTACTING THE INVESTMENT CLUB. NO PARTICULAR RESULT OR INTEREST IS GUARANTEED.
