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American “protein-maxxing” puts a lot of emphasis on the dairy industry.
Whey protein concentrate, once considered a cheap byproduct of the cheese manufacturing process, has become one of the most in-demand ingredients in the American diet. The attack is causing shortages across the country, and some suppliers have been sold out for the last half of the year, according to a USDA report from late April. U.S. whey protein imports at the end of the month have fallen by nearly half since 2023.
“The market remains tight, the product is scarce and consumers continue to report difficulties in obtaining supplies,” the USDA said in a report dated June 25. As a result, prices for whey protein isolates have reached as high as $14 per pound.
With the increase in the use of GLP-1 weight loss drugs – which is poised to increase in many Americans due to Medicare coverage – protein consumption is on the rise at least in the short term. The use of these drugs requires users to increase protein consumption to avoid muscle loss. And that continued increase in weight-loss drug coverage comes at a time when protein is already in high demand among Americans in many usable forms.
“It’s a multi-supplier job,” said Phil Plourd, dairy analyst at Ever.Ag. “The property has grown, but it is difficult for it to grow as quickly as needed,” he said.
Because whey is a by-product of cheese making, the dairy industry cannot build a whey plant on its own, and the processing power to turn liquid whey into powder is limited. Most existing institutions are built with the assumption of steady, predictable growth rather than sharp increases. The additional specialized filtering infrastructure required for this process can take years to obtain approval.
“We have a lot of milk in the US right now. We’ve grown decent milk for over a year and a half now. The issue is not the milk from the farm,” Ploud said.
According to the International Food Information Council, nearly 70 percent of Americans now say they try to eat more protein, up from 59 percent four years ago.
“Protein is riding a wave of popularity, fueled by trends in weight management, fitness and healthy aging,” said Wendy Reinhardt Kapsak, president and CEO of IFIC, in a press release. “Our data shows that it is the most sought-after nutrient, the most followed eating pattern, and the top attribute used by consumers to define a ‘healthy’ diet.”
Chipotle recently released a “High Protein Menu.” Starbucks added a high-protein drink by 2025. Sweetgreen has had “protein plates” since 2023.
Protein now appears on grocery store shelves in nearly every food category available. There are chips, waffles, cakes, ice cream, and ready to drink coffee and other drinks. “We’re going to see a revolution in how food companies source protein,” Plourd said, pointing to Doritos Protein, which uses casein as a protein ingredient.
The TikTok and Instagram trend of “protein-maxxing” pressures people to increase their daily protein intake, often advising one gram per pound of body weight while cutting carbohydrates to lose weight. A niche fitness hack has influenced a nationwide reshaping of how Americans eat.
But users of GLP-1 weight loss drugs are very important in these broad mechanisms that support the need for protein. Health care providers are increasingly recommending a high protein diet to maintain lean body mass during weight loss, and whey protein is often the preferred option due to its amino acid profile and digestibility.
Four major medical societies have published a joint set of nutritional guidelines for patients with GLP-1 receptors, advising patients to eat more protein to help avoid muscle loss, although exercise is important, too.
“When you’re on GLP-1s and a responder, you see a decrease in appetite or appetite,” said Dr. Fatima Cody Stanford, co-author of the guidelines and obesity medicine scientist at Massachusetts General Hospital. “We see a decrease in lean tissue when patients use GLP-1s, so we need to increase the protein,” he said. That has influenced the appearance of proteins in sectors such as beverages. “People can see that it might be easier to drink their protein,” she said.
According to David Steven Jacoby, managing partner and leader of supply chain and operations management at Boston Strategies, the lack of capacity structure in the protein supply chain is a function of suppliers who need to be sure of “bank demand” – signed contracts – before committing to financing, usually loans, to build new infrastructure. During periods of increased demand, when it is difficult for suppliers to set new contract terms, this lack of structural capacity can emerge, he explained in an email to CNBC.
Jacoby estimated that the cost of renovating a single plant is in the range of $15 million, and hundreds of millions of dollars would be needed to expand larger plants. In the current environment, there are two options for the protein supply chain in ramp capacity. Major players can make large investments in the market to increase supply, with the idea that it will also raise the barriers to entry against potential competitors. But regional processors can also take what they call calculated risk to build the ability to gain market share from co-ops.
In Jacoby’s opinion, Dairy Farmers of America, Saputo, Glanbia, Agropur, and Leprino are the most likely companies to move first given their quality. “It would make sense for smaller players like Foremost Farms or Hilmar Cheese to add capacity with an eye to taking market share from cooperatives,” Jacoby wrote.
American dairy producers announced $11 billion in new production capacity across 19 states last October, according to the International Dairy Foods Association, with a plan to increase American milk production significantly over the next five years.
Plourd said the current demand-driven price increase in whey protein should be moderate. “High prices mean high prices,” he said. But he added, “I don’t see a crash. I think we might see moderation instead of a crash, but it could take a few years.”
