AI has been public enemy number 1 for at least two years. As the initial wave of excitement wore off, people realized the content that we, as SEOs and publishers, had spent years flooding the internet with was being used to make the very rich even richer.
We can’t deny that the open web is changing – AI bot traffic grew by 187% from January to December 2025, while human traffic grew by 3.1%. The exchange rate for websites – especially those that trade information and clicks – is not what it used to be. At least not in a sustainable way.
Although this has been accelerated by the advent of large language models – response engines that have restructured the web without participating in click-based value exchanges – audience habits have been changing for a long time. It’s generally not encouraging for publishers.
Direct Relationship Erosion
Similar web data for 15 publishers and four platforms shows that direct traffic has declined in all segments over three years:
- Popular publishers: -33.1%
- Premium Publishers: -23.4%
- Public service publishers: -19.9%
- The Platform segment also recorded a decrease in direct traffic (-13.3%), but made up for it with growth in other channels.
But segment ratings don’t tell the full story. Audiences under 35 are declining almost one-third faster than those over 35. Tomorrow’s definitive group of (hopefully) paying subscribers is coming out.
The Birmingham Mail saw a 54.6% drop in direct traffic during this period. The Mirror held a close second at 52.9%. On the other hand, the Telegraph lost 8.9%. There is likely to be Premium durability on display.
The NYT has seen growth in the UK market, albeit from smaller users, as has GB News – a new proposition in 2023 as far as I know.
YouTube’s 17.8% loss in direct traffic over the same period drags down the Platform share. You could argue that this is a sign of very specific app-based behavior. I think you could make the same argument for publishers.
All other platforms received a specific user base during this time frame. Although it is worth remembering that Substack and TikTok had a very small beginning:
- TikTok: +56.7%
- Substack: +248.8%
- Reddit: +4.7%
The total traffic of the platforms has successfully caught on, thanks in large part to Reddit’s incredible increase in organic searches – up 114% during that time. I’m sure none of you will be surprised by it.
This behavior is reflected in Named Search
It may also come as no surprise to know that losing a regular audience isn’t just limited to direct traffic. Branded searches – arguably the second or third best proxy for user resonance (along with online mentions) – have similarly declined.
Since the rise of the Daily Mail in 2013, the story has been consistent and damaging. Publishers’ offerings look less attractive.
Within the same window of the same web data, searches with the name dropped by about 25-56% for all topics with a measurable signal.
The Daily Mirror is down 56% in searches with the name. Sun 54%. The Times and the Independent saw much smaller declines, but they had already hit the bottom before this window arrived.
Now?
Publishers do not compete with other publishers. Yes, they are, not only. As the Internet and the world change, publishers’ offerings must follow suit. Branded searches dropped faster than direct traffic over the same window – two independent measures of the same fading trend, pointing in the same direction. Down.
So publishers need to be more local and attract younger audiences as well.
Develop lyrics, and work with creators. Platforms show great resilience because they use each individual. Audiences, especially young ones, trust the individual over the brand. Publishers can use each within their product structure, by creating individual voices, as Wired does, and separate the product and revenue base.
Create products that create a habit. A decade of declining direct and branded traffic can be tied, but not by repeating what worked before. Audio and video, games, puzzles and other playback formats create interactions that add a lifetime of value. That’s the user love the sign has a total CLV more than 50 times higher than that of a regular or one-time student, according to Ringier.
Invest in product developmentnot just planning. Bridging the communication gap with platforms takes recommendation systems, personalization engines, and a news and notification infrastructure – the expectations of a younger audience now.
All of this is designed to build resilience in the form of a moat. Use these products and systems to collect first-person data. Community referrals have dropped dramatically, and Google is becoming a walled garden, solving queries in its own domain. Registered, logged-in audiences are hedges: They add value to marketing, and without first-person data, quality personalization is very difficult.
That’s it, short and sweet. Until next time!
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