One year after missing the championship by a few inches, the Blue Jays find themselves at the bottom of the AL East. They are a season-worst nine games under .500 after dropping six of their first eight coming out of the All-Star Break. Only the Angels, A’s and Royals are below them in the American League. They didn’t expect to be here, but sales seem inevitable.
Record: 46-55 (8.6% playoff odds, via FanGraphs)
For other entries in this series, see this post.
Sell Mode
Upcoming free agents: Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Daulton Varsho, George Springer, Myles Straw (club option), Max Scherzer, Patrick Corbin, I’m Garcia
The Jays have eight free agents, most of whom are big names on tight contracts. Their top chips are rotating, as Gausman and Bieber can each be guides for teams looking for a playoff-caliber starter. Neither is having their best season, but each is among the most talented recruiting weapons available.
Gausman is making $23MM in the final season of his five-year, $110MM free agent contract. It was one of the best free agent investments in recent years. The veteran righty has a pair of top 10 Cy Young wins, has never missed an injury, and has a 3.62 ERA over 849 1/3 innings in a Toronto uniform. He posted a grade below 4.00 in the first four seasons of the contract.
The 35-year-old has had a few stumbles as the Aug. 3 deadline approaches. His 4.51 ERA through 21 starts is the highest in seven years. Gausman was hitting his usual pace at the end of May, posting a 3.13 ERA while striking out 24% of opponents in his 12 starts. He has allowed 6.56 earned runs in his last nine outings, including a handful of clunkers as his walk rate has increased.
There isn’t much change in his stuff or turnover rates. Strength, record, and stuff will make him one of the better options Tarik Skubal in the trading market. Teams like the Braves, Cubs or Phillies may be involved. Gausman will be owed about $6.7MM from the deadline through the end of the season. He is not eligible for a qualifying offer, as he has previously received, so a trade would be the Jays’ only way to get compensation back. Gausman acknowledged that his start last night will likely be his last home appearance at Rogers Center, even as he focuses on helping Toronto turn things around (link via Keegan Matheson of MLB.com).
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