Reds and breakout are good Chase Burns are in agreement on a seven-year, $105MM contract extension, MLB Network’s Jon Morosi reports. Client Vayner Sports was already subject to arbitration for the 2031 season. The deal begins next season and runs through 2033 with no deferred money or option years, according to ESPN’s Jeff Passan. That means the Reds get another two years of club control in place of the previous No. 2 pick.
At just 23 years old, Burns has emerged as one of the best hitters in baseball. The former Wake Forest standout has started 18 games, pitched 102 2/3 innings, and posted a 2.54 earned run average in his first full season at the big league level. He struck out 28.6% of his opponents with a walk rate of 9%. Burns is a homer-friendly park fly ball hitter, but he has managed to avoid contact well and has given up just a 1.05 homer average over nine frames this year.
Listed at 6’3″ and 210 pounds, Burns has a prototypical first base frame and the kind of high-octane arsenal needed before making the big league rotation. He’s averaged a scorching 97.8 mph on his heater this season, combining a pitch with a devastating slider that sits at 90.5 mph and a show-me changeup with the same velocity he’s thrown at a 5.7% clip this year. Opponents chased nearly 34% of Burns’ pitches outside of the strike zone. Their contact rate (71%) is six points behind the league-average of 77%. Burns’ 14.1% swing strike rate is three percentage points higher than average. Opposition batsmen simply cannot connect with his powerful repertoire.
Burns’ four-seamer and slider are his bread and butter. He could use an active changeup to help him stay ineffective, but southpaw hitters have yet to shine for him. They hit .214/.307/.409. He’ll run into trouble from time to time against lefties – 10 of his 12 long balls have been against left-handed opponents – but they haven’t presented any major problems so far. Meanwhile, opponents on the right should never bother getting into the box. They are hitting just .195/.230/.286 in 161 plate appearances this season.
Cincinnati selected Burns with the No. 2 overall pick in 2024. He was in the prime less than a year later, making his debut on June 24, 2025. He didn’t dominate in 2025 but he held his own, posting a 4.57 ERA with an impressive 35.6% strike rate during that 3-inning, 43-inning debut. Burns finished the 2025 season in free agency as Cincinnati monitored his career, but the signs of a potentially powerful arm were there. He fanned 10 opponents four times despite never going more than six innings in one appearance, and closed out the year with just three runs allowed and a 22-to-4 K/BB ratio over his final 16 frames.
Burns’ contract is the largest ever signed by a pitcher with less than four years of major league service. The mere fact that it is an example shows the risk-averse approach teams take in signing young players. The prospects for the top position are the same Colt Emerson ($95MM), Connor Griffin ($140MM) and Kevin McGonigle ($150MM) received huge paydays this season with no major league experience at all (none at all, in Emerson’s case). On the other hand, pitchers rarely get tough long-term contracts.
A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows that prior to today’s deal, the largest contract extension for a pitcher with less than four years of service was. Logan WebbA five-year, $90MM deal he signed through April 2023. Burns now becomes the ninth pitcher ever to sign a $100MM+ contract before accruing six years of service and reaching free agency.
Burns now finds himself at the top of the Reds’ rotation next to a player whom Cincinnati also selected second overall (albeit seven years ago): Hunter Greene. Greene missed the first few months of the season while recovering from surgery to remove a ligament in his elbow, but since 2024-25 he has pitched the Reds in 258 innings with a 2.76 ERA, a 29.2% strikeout rate and an 8.1% walk rate. Like Burns, Greene is a fiery righty who relies mostly on a mine-seam/slider combination with rarely used offerings (splitter, sinker) to round out his arsenal. As they did with Burns, the Reds extended Greene early in his career. Locked in 2029: $15MM next season, $16MM in 2028 and $21MM club option ($2MM buyout) in 2029.
As long as they stay healthy, Burns and Greene will form one of the most impressive punches in the game. The Reds have a good support game of controllable arms behind them; Andrew Abbott, Nick Lodolo, Rhett Lowder again Chase Petty all are controlled beyond the 2026 season. The latter two are not committed to the majors but are former first-round picks and top prospects. Abbott and Lodolo see their names rise in trade rumors over the next two-plus weeks or in the offseason. The Reds are nine games under .500, last place in the NL Central and eight games back in the Wild Card hunt. Abbott is controlled for three more years beyond the current season, but Lodolo is controlled only through 2027.
As shown in MLBTR’s recently released Payroll Tracker, the Reds had just three guaranteed contracts (Greene, It’s Bryan Hayes, Jose Trevino) on the books for next year before this extension. Those three totaled only $27.25MM. They could add a fourth guaranteed contract when they struggle around Emilio Pagan using a $10MM player option, and there is a notable slate of arbitration-eligible players to consider: Lodolo, Abbott, Elly De La Cruz, JJ Bleday, Spencer Steer, TJ Friedl, Matt McLain, Graham Ashcraft, Tony Santillan, Sam Moll again Brandon Williamson.
Of course, Burns’ extension won’t weigh heavily on next year’s budget. Long-term pre-arbitration player deals of this type often equate to what would otherwise be a player’s natural salary increase. In other words, they put in near-league minimum salaries early on before moving on to arbitration-level salaries and eventually heavy numbers in potential free agent years. Greene’s contract, for example, includes $33MM in guarantees over the final two guaranteed seasons of a six-year, $53MM contract.
Burns will join Greene and Hayes as the only Reds players guaranteed anything beyond the 2027 season. His extension links him to the former Reds pitcher Homer Bailey with the franchise’s biggest commitment to a pitcher. Joey Votto ($225MM) and Ken Griffey Jr. ($116.5MM) are the only players ever to receive a larger guarantee from the Reds. This level of investment from a low-wage club speaks to its faith in Burns to lead the workforce for the foreseeable future. At the same time, it’s reasonable enough that it shouldn’t hold back the Reds, financially speaking, for years to come — even if Cincinnati remains one of the lowest-spending teams in the league.
It’s hard not to view the deal as a win for all parties. Burns could have gotten more money if he had gone year-to-year in the partnership and reached free agency before his age-29 season. However, doing so will come with the risk of injury and/or a significant decrease in performance. The Reds, on the other hand, are protecting Burns’s age-29 and age-30 seasons – two of his prime years. Burns will still hit the market before his age-31 season, barring another extension down the road, giving him ample opportunity to sign another big contract.
