Trump’s calls preceded the NATO summit

The long-running war between Russia and Ukraine appears to have entered a new phase after major developments over the weekend and ahead of a tense NATO summit.

In the past 72 hours, US President Donald Trump is said to have held separate phone calls with Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, Ukrainian warplanes hit an oil terminal and port in St.

The prospect of renewed communications, and the risk of escalation, has put investors on notice at a time when markets are trying to price national risk, energy security and the integrity of European defense spending promises.

“There is a real hope of ending this war, and the American decision is final,” Zelenskyy said in a social media post on Saturday.

The Ukrainian president said he discussed the latest situation on the front after more than four years of conflict and agreed with Trump to continue negotiations at the NATO summit. Heads of state from 32 countries are expected in Ankara, the capital of Turkey, from Tuesday for a two-day conference.

Meanwhile, the Kremlin said on Sunday that Trump spoke with Putin for 90 minutes over the weekend, where the US president offered to help find a solution to the war.

Yury Ushakov, a Kremlin aide, described the talks as “business-like and very constructive,” according to Russian newspaper RIA Novosti.

“There are great hopes for beneficial cooperation between our countries. To achieve this, Donald Trump emphasized, it will be necessary to end the conflict in Ukraine as soon as possible,” Ushakov told reporters.

A White House spokesman could not be reached for comment when contacted by CNBC on Monday.

The US president, who repeatedly said during the 2024 campaign that he could end the Russia-Ukraine war in one day if elected, has shown the power of Kyiv’s American revival following the signing of a temporary peace deal with Iran.

The proposal, coupled with a number of Ukrainian deep-strike successes, has led some analysts to conclude that the war could shift to Kyiv, as Putin recently acknowledged the impact of Ukraine’s strikes on Russian oil production for the first time.

Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Russian oil facilities and military facilities in recent weeks, seeking to cut off Moscow’s energy revenues and trying to increase political pressure on the Kremlin.

Ukrainian officials reported that the military attacked a major oil terminal in Russia’s second largest city, St. Petersburg, and the Kronstadt Naval Base, the main base of the Russian Baltic Fleet, on Friday and Saturday. The attack reportedly caused a fire at an oil facility and a military base.

In response, Russian missiles and drones pounded the Ukrainian capital in the early hours of Monday, killing at least 11 people and causing extensive damage to high-rise residential buildings, authorities said. The attack, which took place on the eve of a NATO summit, follows a separate deadly attack in Kyiv last week.

Researchers at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), a think tank based in Washington, said Putin wanted to emphasize that Ukraine’s European allies had a false impression of the realities of the battlefield, citing Ushakov’s account of the call.

Instead, Putin is said to have told Trump about the “real” situation in which Russian troops are advancing, with Putin saying Russian troops have taken the eastern town of Kostyantynivka.

Russia’s preemptive claims come as the Trump administration has been touting Ukraine’s successes on the battlefield, including attacks on Russian military assets and energy infrastructure at mid-range, ISW said in its latest assessment.

“Putin and other Kremlin officials may have deliberately planted false news that Russian forces will take over the rest of Donetsk Oblast in Western intelligence to convince the West to comply with demands that Russia cannot defend militarily,” ISW researchers said on Sunday.