As the Red Sox’ season continues to falter — they’re buried in the bottom of the AL East and have the American League’s second-worst record — speculation about a potential trade deadline continues to grow. The team hasn’t made any big directional decisions at this point, but if they choose to go the route of a salesman, they’re a veteran right-hander. Sonny Gray will be open-minded about giving up his comprehensive no-trade protections, tells Tim Healey of the Boston Globe.
“If someone from the Red Sox decides that this team is going to go that way, I will be open to discussion,” said Gray. The 36-year-old righty declined to say whether geography would play any role in his decision-making process.
Gray came to Boston in an offseason trade that sent the right-hander Richard Fitts and minor league left Brandon Clarke in St. That trade saw the rebuilding Cardinals club work to expand its farm system and cut payroll for the now-winner Red Sox looking to improve its rotation. Months later, it’s the Cardinals in contention and the Sox who find themselves weighing a potential reset. The Cards are seven games over .500 and currently have a National League Wild Card spot.
Although Boston has struggled this season, Gray’s performance hasn’t had an impact. He missed two weeks with a hamstring strain in late April but was sharp on the mound. The 2023 American League Cy Young runner-up boasts a 3.12 ERA in 69 1/3 innings.
Gray has struck out a career-low 19.4% of his opponents but is sporting an impressive 6% walk rate – the kind of combined command we’ve come to expect from him over the years. Gray has never been a burner, but he is living in the 91-93 mph range this season (91.8 mph average four-seamer, 92.3 mph average sinker), which is down more than a mile per hour from his top speed. His 9.1% swing-to-strike rate is about two percent of the league average and a full three percent shy of last year’s 12.1% mark, so there doesn’t appear to be a major rebound in hitting on the horizon. Gray produced his highest ground ball rate since 2020 (48.1%), and opponents aren’t hitting him as hard.
When Gray was traded from St. Louis to Boston, restructured his contract to pay him $31MM in salary this season with a $10MM buyout for a $30MM co-op option for the 2027 season. The Cards put up $20MM to cover about half of that one-year obligation. That $20MM likely went toward his 2026 salary, meaning the new team would owe a split portion of the remaining $11MM in salary and $10MM in buyouts in that same stretch. The Red Sox, of course, can include cash in any contract to offset some of the costs of a trade partner.
It must be emphasized that the partnership option will not be viewed by any of the acquiring parties as a possible extension of control of the club. It has been 12 years since MLB’s cooperative option was exercised by both sides (Brewers, Aramis Ramirez in 2014). Shared options are more or less countermeasures, effectively acting as a bit of a deferral by kicking a portion of a player’s guaranteed salary for one season onto the books for the next year in the form of a buyout option. Generally, if a player performs well enough for a team to exercise his option expiration, that player has probably performed well enough to decline his option expiration in search of a big deal on the open market. On the other hand, if a player uses his option ending, it is because he doesn’t see that he can exceed that price in free agency (either due to injury or poor performance), thus leading the team to reject his ending.
All of that is to underline the fact that opposing teams will view Gray as an innocent lot. The Sox should have a lot of incentive to trade him if they can’t turn the ship around. Gray declined a qualifying offer from the Twins following his breakout season in 2023, and players are only eligible for one QO in their careers. As such, the Red Sox will not receive compensation for his departure in free agency if they hold him until the end of the season.
Gray, and colleagues Aroldis Chapmancould be one of the most interesting arms in the summer trade market. Lower-income clubs could drop the $10MM buyout for Gray’s 2027 option, but as noted, the Sox could pay some or all of that down. A high-paying club that needs help in exchange (eg Phillies, Braves) may be more willing to take that big buyout and pay the cost of a small prospect.
For now, Boston is more focused on trying to salvage a very disappointing season. They were reportedly looking to add a right-handed bat this month, so the transition to trading veteran pieces hasn’t taken place yet. The remainder of the team’s second-half schedule is a mixed bag. They just won two of three in Seattle and now head to Coors Field for three games against MLB’s worst club. They also have three games against the AL’s worst team (the Angels) and three against an equally disappointing Mets team left on their first half schedule. On the strong end of the spectrum, the Sox still have three series against winning clubs on the docket before the Midsummer Classic: three games against the Nationals, three against the White Sox and four against the rival Yankees.
