From left, Congresswoman Claire Valdez, New York Democrat and US House candidate; Brad Lander, former New York City administrator and member of the US House; Zohran Mamdani, mayor of New York; and US House candidate Darializa Avila Chevalier, during a “Get Out the Vote” rally ahead of the primary election at the Kings Theater in Brooklyn, New York, on June 18, 2026.
Adam Gray | Bloomberg | Getty Images
On Tuesday night, New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani faces her first major election test since being elected in November 2025. This time, although Mamdani is not on the ballot, her ability to sway voters is there.
Mamdani has endorsed three candidates for congressional primaries in the city: former New York City Councilman Brad Lander in New York’s 10th congressional district, New York State Assemblywoman Claire Valdez in NY-7 and first-time candidate Darializa Avila Chevalier in NY-13.
Traders on the Kalshi prediction market platform think the mayor will go two out of three.
Observers put a 54% chance that Valdez and Lander will win, while Chevalier will lose. They also give a 28% chance that all three candidates will win, and a 20% chance that only Lander will win.
Those odds are based on individual index contracts, where all three events for each candidate win or lose need to occur for the trade to settle with a “yes.” Results on index contracts are certified by the New York State Board of Elections.
Chances and gambling platforms do not use the methods used by traditional political polls, and therefore do not replace political elections.
Lander, a Mamdani ally, is challenging Democratic Rep. Dan Goldman. Goldman has been criticized by left-wing critics for his support for Israel in the district that includes midtown Manhattan and Park Slope, Brooklyn.
In a contract questioning whether a candidate will win the Democratic nomination in NY-10, Kalshi traders are giving Lander the most likely chance of winning the Democratic nomination in the district. The results of the contracts of the appointed persons are confirmed by the Democratic Party.
Valdez is seeking to replace retiring Rep. Nydia Velázquez in NY-7 — which includes Williamsburg in Brooklyn and Long Island City in Queens — even though Velázquez has endorsed Brooklyn Borough President Antonio Reynoso. Reynoso is supported by the progressive Working Families Party, while Valdez is supported by the Democratic Socialists of America.
Traders in Kalshi think Valdez is popular; they give him about an 80% chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
Finally, Chevalier – who is also supported by the Democratic Socialists of America – wants to remove Rep. Adriano Espaillat, chairman of the Congressional Hispanic Caucus. NY-13 covers Harlem and Washington Heights in Manhattan, as well as parts of the Bronx. The traders at Kalshi gave Espaillat two out of three chances to withstand the challenge from the Chevalier.
Meanwhile, there is another disputed base in NY-12, which connects Midtown and the Upper East Side to the West Side of Manhattan. Mamdani did not propose a candidate for this race.
Competing artificial intelligence PACs are seeking to boost and pressure the position of New York State Assemblyman Alex Bores, who has been an ardent supporter of AI legislation. OpenAI-backed Leading the Future spent $8 million against Bores, and Anthropic-backed Public First Action spent $11 million to support him.
However, Kalshi traders think that his fellow Assemblyman Micah Lasher is favored in the NY-12 race, giving him a 74% chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a small investment.
