On yesterday’s earnings call, Tesla CEO Elon Musk did his best to paint a positive picture of the company’s robotics program. New cities are being added, more miles are being driven, and more people are experiencing Tesla’s unmanned vehicles.
But Musk’s usual tenacity appeared to be off the mark, as the trillionaire occasionally sought to downplay hopes for the future of the program.
“We’re moving as fast as we can in bringing Robotaxi up,” Musk said, “while trying to make sure we don’t hurt anyone at all and don’t even run over a pet.”
Musk’s insistence that Tesla’s robot service is growing contradicts the reality of the situation: Mileage is basically flat, the number of cars seems to be decreasing, and despite the claims of Tesla’s top team of “significant events,” the safety of the company’s technology seems to be an open question.
Tesla did his best to plan the situation as he headed in the right direction. Ashok Elluswamy, the company’s head of AI, said Tesla’s unsupervised robot traveled 380,000 kilometers in six cities in two different states. And according to Musk, that was increasing by an average of 10 percent per week in terms of miles driven.
Tesla did his best to plan the situation as he headed in the right direction
Elluswamy couldn’t help but take a swipe at Tesla’s competitors who use lidar sensors, as opposed to Tesla’s camera-0nly approach. “Historically, the so-called experts have always said you need lidar, radar, HD maps, and the whole kitchen sink to drive safely,” he said. “Here we show that’s not true. You can have safe, comfortable, and affordable autonomy with just cameras. This record should be a huge validation of Tesla’s entire AI approach.”
But even the numbers reported by Tesla seem to betray that message. Waymo, which uses lidar and radar sensors as redundant sensors in addition to cameras, typically drives about four million miles a week. Tesla’s total mileage, a year into its robotaxi system, is less than 10 percent of that figure. This reality is starting to anger investors, with BNP Paribas Equity Research chief analyst James Picariello calling it a “shocking decline” in a research note to clients.
Tesla uses a mix of unattended and unattended vehicles as part of its fleet, but that ratio seems to be in constant flux. According to crowdsourced crobotaxi Tracker, the company currently has 16 unattended vehicles in Austin, four in Dallas, and one in Houston. During the earnings call, Elluswamy was asked what is preventing Tesla from flooding the area in Austin, where it first introduced its robotaxis last year, as opposed to dropping a small number of cars in new cities.
“The reason we’re expanding in different cities, instead of doubling in one city, is that we want to make sure our numbers are the same,” Elluswamy said. “It’s normal. We just want to like, you know, both prove to ourselves and to other people that it works in all the different cities without a big effort by each city.”
Another limiting factor is the country’s laws. New Jersey is considering a bill that would ban robotaxis without multiple sensors, such as radar and lidar. Morgan Stanley analyst Andrew Percoco noted this on the call, saying “it looks like there are regulations changing at the federal level, possibly around sensor requirements.” Tesla’s vice president of automotive engineering Lars Morvay admitted that “obviously the New Jersey stuff is, you know, a little disappointing.”
A more restrictive regulatory environment would limit the total market for Tesla’s robot, which would conflict with the company’s message about a more general service that can drive anywhere, under any conditions.
Security is another obstacle. Musk’s comment about wanting to avoid running over a pet appeared to be a subtle swipe at Waymo, which has hit and killed many animals in the past few years. But Tesla’s safety record is a mixed bag. We don’t have a lot of good insight into Tesla’s robot crash because the company tends to redo a lot of important details.
According to Robotaxi Tracker, the company’s vehicles have been involved in 18 accidents, 56% of which were the fault of another driver. And Tesla’s Full Self-Driving is under investigation by the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration, with the possibility of a future recall. Tesla’s robotaxis currently uses version 15 of the FSD, compared to version 14.3.6 in its customer vehicles.
Tesla is asking investors, supporters, and customers to look beyond these hurdles as it continues to push the message that the robotaxi system is growing. But the company continues to face a reality that contradicts that message.
