A Syrian farmer looks at an Iranian missile that fell on an agricultural field in the Najha area, in the countryside of the Syrian capital after being intercepted by Israeli air defense systems on June 8, 2026.
Bakr Alkasem Afp | Getty Images
Ten days after US President Donald Trump declared an end to Iran, both sides are launching military strikes and reviving political uncertainty.
The US Central Command hit Iran with strikes for 10 straight nights, saying that these attacks “will reduce the Iranian forces used to attack commercial ships in the Strait of Hormuz.”
Here are some things to be aware of:
Focus on Strait of Hormuz traffic
Shipping on the vital waterway has declined since the start of the war, as ships passing through the Sponder are closed, according to Lloyd’s analyst team.
Over the weekend, only 30 ships passed through this road, according to intelligence firm Kpler. More than 100 ships sailed through Hormuz every day before the US and Israel attacked Iran on Feb. 28.
However, the Trump administration says the Strait remains open and millions of barrels of oil are shipped daily under the protection of the US military.
Oil prices are rising
Renewed conflicts have sent oil prices soaring, and international benchmarks Brent breaking above the $90 mark on July 20 for the first time in over a month, with US crude futures and reach their highest point in the month on the same day.
The Strait of Hormuz is an important energy hub, with an estimated 20.3 million barrels of crude oil passing through the Strait of Hormuz every day, according to the US Energy Information Administration.
This accounts for about 25% of the seaborne oil trade. About 90% of this oil flow is exported to Asian markets, with China and India being the leading destinations.
Amrita Sen, founder and director of market intelligence at Energy Aspects told CNBC’s “Access the Middle East” on Monday that with inventory buffers running low, continued disruptions in August could force Gulf production to decline and push crude prices back into the triple digits.
Iran’s ability to retaliate
On the other hand, Iran still has the ability to do damage to the US, its allies, and assets in the region.
Its strikes on commercial vessels have caused concern, with a ship operated by Greek shipping company Dynacom reportedly the latest victim. Israeli media said the ship caught fire after it was hit by an unknown explosive device in the Strait of Hormuz.
Despite the US strikes, Tehran is still able to launch missiles and drones, with its attacks on countries hosting US bases killing three more US soldiers recently.
US President Donald Trump vowed that Tehran would “pay” by dying “many times,” adding that the path was open to everyone except Iran.
‘No good options’ for no road
On Monday, Axios, citing sources familiar with the matter, reported that regional mediators such as Qatar and Pakistan offered the US and Iran a 10-day ceasefire, although Washington is also preparing for the talks to fail.
Axios also reported that Israel is preparing for a possible escalation of the war into a full-scale, joint operation within days.
Last week, Clemens Chay, senior fellow for geopolitics at the Observer Research Foundation described the situation to CNBC as a contained but expanding cycle.
In his opinion, Washington had no “good options.” The US must tolerate an Iranian war, escalate despite regional opposition, or give in.
He said Iran kept the Strait of Hormuz “like a switch that can turn it on and off,” and warned that the simultaneous disruption of the Strait of Hormuz and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait would be a disaster for the world economy.
The relief valve is compromised
On Monday night, the Houthi rebels announced a maritime embargo against Saudi Arabia to take effect immediately, threatening to exacerbate the disruption of oil supplies caused by Iran’s attack on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz.
The Houthis have repeatedly threatened to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait during the US-Iran war. The strait is a bottleneck for commercial shipping, as well as oil shipments from Saudi Arabia.
Since the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia has diverted millions of barrels of oil a day through a pipeline to an export point in the Red Sea. Those exports acted as a relief valve to oil markets around the world during the conflict.
The closure of Bab el-Mandeb will block those barrels, exacerbating the disruption caused by Iran’s attack on the Hormuz tanks.
— CNBC’s Spencer Kimball contributed to this report.
