This is one of the slowest sports weeks of the year, but that doesn’t mean we don’t have anything to bet on! There are still WNBA games, there’s the All-Star Game, and there’s tonight’s Home Run Derby. Also, we can start looking at the NFL season, which starts about two months from now. Let’s take a look at how to bet on tonight’s Home Run Derby and where to make money.
Laws
This year MLB is doing something different. The Derby will not only be on Netflix, but to keep things moving, the most homers the owner can hit in the round is 20 (sort of). That’s because they only get 20 turns in Round 1, and 15 in Round 2 and the Final round. If you hit a homer on your last turn, you go until you don’t hit a homer. It should speed things up a bit.
BRYCE HARPER RESPONDS TO VULGAR SONGS FROM NATION FANS WITH A HOME RUN AND A RULE WHILE GOING THROUGH TIME.
Philadelphia Phillies designated hitter Kyle Schwarber singles in the third inning against the New York Mets at Citizens Bank Park in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania on June 20, 2026. (Mitchell Leff/Getty Images)
Kyle Schwarber, 32 homers
Schwarber is a slugger and currently leads the league in home runs. Schwarber has plenty of reasons to like him tonight. He has competed in the Derby before, and plays on his home turf. Honestly, he’s one of my favorite players of all time, so it’s hard for me to get over my bias, but you could do a lot worse than betting on him at +300 to win. However, I have some concerns that he may not be able to leave immediately.
Junior Caminero, 28 homers
The man finished second in the Derby last year and is looking to try for the title this year. He has the power to save, but I feel like if anyone is going to swing and miss this tournament, it’s Caminero. He’s +425, but I wouldn’t put money on him as I like people familiar with the ballpark.
Murakami of the Chicago White Sox celebrates his two-run home run against the Arizona Diamondbacks during the seventh inning in Phoenix, Arizona, on April 22, 2026. (Photo by Ross D. Franklin/AP)
Munetaka Murakami, 20 homers
He certainly has pop and is part of the reason the White Sox have been successful this year, but he’s also coming back from injury. I didn’t live near him. For the record, he has competed in Japanese derbies before, but never won.
Jac Caglianone, 15 homers
He’s a kid, so he might have some competition, but I think his chances should be high. He is +700 in the league and has just 15 homers this season. And I don’t think he’ll be very familiar with the batsman’s eye here, so it might be a struggle at first. I don’t touch him.
Jordan Walker, 22 homers
I think this is my favorite underdog in this tournament. His metrics show he’s hitting the ball a lot with contact, and with 20 swings, he might have all the power needed to hit every pop. You’re starting to get into this, but I think it’s more important when you’re on a time limit instead of being flexible. He may want to make a name for himself. Give me a fraction of Walker at +800.
Philadelphia Phillies first baseman Bryce Harper celebrates after hitting a three-run home run against the Washington Nationals during the ninth inning at Nationals Park in Washington, DC, on June 25, 2026. (Brad Mills/Images)
Bryce Harper, 20 homers
Former winner: check. Playing in his home ballpark: check. The man with the pop: check. A man who likes big moments: double check. I’m very surprised that Harper doesn’t mind too much. He’s my legitimate pick to win it, and I’ll bet him fully at +800. (Note: this is a show thing, so “full bet” is not a standard game value for me.)
Ben Rice, 29 years old
This guy is having a great season and can certainly get his fair share of balls over the fence. I have no good reason not to choose Rice. You can make the same case for him as Jordan Walker, but I just don’t like him. Not a big analysis, just a fact.
Fenway Fireworks! Willson Contreras smashes a first inning home run to put the Red Sox ahead. (Photo by Natalie Reid/MLB Pictures via Getty Images) ((Photo by Natalie Reid/MLB Pictures via Getty Images))
Willson Contreras, 20 homers
No one in the league has had a more exciting season than Contreras. This will be his first Home Run Derby, and I tend to shy away from new guys a bit. However, as mentioned, this new approach should be good for him. He is either doing this for Venezuela or for people to see something positive about him after his crazy past few weeks. At +1400 he’s a big hitter, but he can blast homers, so he’s a tough guy for me to handicap here.
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Give me Harper to win at +800, and I’ll take the rest of the unit and split it between Walker and Contreras. I also like Harper to make the Semi-Finals at -115.
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