We are not equal One month into a “very good” El Niño, a natural Pacific climate characterized by warmer than average sea temperatures, and fisheries around the world are already suffering.
In Peru, government officials have successfully canceled the fishing season for anchovies, one of the country’s most important exports and the world’s leading source of fish oil and animal feed. The Indian government is gearing up for a smaller, more plentiful Indian mackerel season. Meanwhile, in Southern California, recreational and commercial fishermen have reported some of the most successful months of tuna fishing they’ve ever seen.
Different scenarios show how El Niño can create winners and losers across the fishing industry, decimating some species while making others easier to catch. For fishermen, the result is instability, with many forced to consider seasonal variations. And consumers can expect price fluctuations of the main fish products.
“People are worried,” said Juan Carlos Sueiro, economist and fisheries director of the non-profit organization Oceana Peru. As climate change is expected to continue, with stronger El Niños, “our vulnerability increases.”
El Niño is a weather phenomenon that occurs every two to seven years in the tropical Pacific Ocean. It was named by Peruvian fishermen who, centuries ago, saw periodic fluctuations in their catch, with a significant drop occurring every few years around Christmas. They called it El Niño, which is the name of the baby Jesus.
The reason it has such different effects on different fisheries has to do with how it moves through the ocean.
Under normal conditions, the westerly trade winds near the equator carry warm water from South America to Asia. This causes cold, nutrient-dense water to rise from the depths, a process known as “upwelling” that encourages the growth of microalgae near the ocean. During El Niño, however, weakening trade winds slow or stop this increase. Less algae in the area means species that depend on it, such as anchovies, are forced to search for grub in deeper water. This not only makes it difficult to catch fish, it can also depress and reduce their population.
At the same time, that ocean power can improve other fisheries. El Niño often sees warm-water species such as skipjack tuna divert to the waters off the American coast, where temperatures are generally not too cold. Closer to shore, these species become easier to catch.
Both of these changes affect Peru, where past El Niños have devastated both countries anchoveta fishing—the largest single-species fishery in the world—also increases the availability of shrimp, scallops, dolphins, and tuna. This spring and summer, the coastal El Niño conditions have already affected the country’s anchovies, leading the government to issue a permanent fishing ban on them during the April to July season so that their population does not decrease further. Humberto Speziani, a fisheries consultant for Peru’s industries and former director of the International Marine Ingredients Organization, said ships with sonar technology have been finding anchovies more than 100 meters below the surface. Even if commercial fishermen tried to catch those anchovies, they probably couldn’t—that’s twice the depth easily reached using conventional purse seine fishing nets.
Seafood prices are liable to change, too, due to the mild effects of El Niño outside the Pacific Ocean. For example, wild salmon can become so depleted due to lack of food during El Niño that they are called “snakes;” its decline in North American coastal waters can lead to higher front-of-the-boat prices—which fishermen receive at the docks—and then pass on to customers in stores and restaurants. And in local Peruvian markets, prices for jack mackerel and corvina have already reportedly doubled, prompting families to buy more chicken instead. Sueiro said the opposite is possible for species such as shrimp, whose populations have boomed during past El Niños.
