Kalshi vendors give a low probability that the US will participate in OpenAI in 2026
US President Donald Trump (R) and Open AI CEO Sam Altman (L) react during a lunch meeting of G7 members, partner countries, and artificial intelligence business leaders as part of the G7 summit, in Evian, eastern France, June 17, 2026. The G7 summit will be held from June 15 to 17 in the French city of Bains-vian in the country of France. leaders and the EU’s foreign policy chief and ministers from Brazil, Canada, the United Arab Emirates and Turkey. (Photo by Julia Demaree Nikhinson / POOL / AFP via Getty Images)
Julia Demaree Nikhinson Afp | Getty Images
While OpenAI has reportedly proposed giving the Trump administration a stake in the company, Kalshi traders see long odds that such a deal could happen this year.
Last week the Financial Times reported that the intelligence giant had proposed giving the US government a 5% stake. However, Kalshi’s vendors see less than a 30% chance that the US government will participate in OpenAI or Anthropic.
The Kalshi event asks which companies the US government will participate in this year, and will be resolved once they have been confirmed by the government, news outlets or official filings.
OpenAI CEO Sam Altman began sharing with the Trump administration the idea of giving the government a stake in 2025, a source familiar with the matter told CNBC last month. The source asked not to be identified because the information is confidential.
Last week President Donald Trump avoided answering CNBC’s question on the proposed OpenAI debate. Instead, he discussed the 10% stake the government took from Intel last summer.
“Intel is in. They have a problem,” Trump said. “I said, ‘I can solve your problem, but I want 10% of the company.’
Kalshi traders see more than 60% odds that the government will participate this year in quantum computing games Rigetti Computing or ID-Wave Quantumand a semiconductor manufacturer GlobalFoundries.
In May, the US Department of Commerce said it would award $2 billion in grants to nine firms in the area of quantum computing. The National Institute of Standards and Technology said it would take a small, non-controlling stake in each company. Rigetti Computing, D-Wave Quantum and GlobalFoundries were among the companies.
The Wall Street Journal also reported in May, citing people familiar with the matter, that the Trump administration may establish agreements with several private drone companies such as Performance Drone Works and Neros Technologies. Some of these deals could include equity stakes, some people told the Journal.
Both Performance Drone Works and Neros Technologies are also under contract to Kalshi for government stakes. Traders see a more than 50% chance that the government will participate in the first, and a less than 40% chance that it will participate in the latter.
Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a small investment.
