Oil field workers, contracted by the Railroad Commission of Texas (RRC), operate a service rig during a state-sponsored oil well connection project in Midland, Texas, US, Thursday, Sept. 25, 2025.
Eli Hartman Bloomberg | Getty Images
Oil prices fell on Friday on reports that Pakistan is looking at resuming talks between the US and Iran.
Brent crude futuresinternational average, fell about 4% to close at $96.78 a barrel. In the US West Texas Intermediate crude futures lost 3% to $89.31 per barrel.
Three sources told Reuters that Pakistan’s effort to revive US-Iran talks was backed by China.
“The Chinese are not happy because Iran’s attacks on other Gulf states and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz are disturbing them,” a Pakistani government official told Reuters.
US crude has gained about 8% this week and Brent has advanced about 10% as fighting in the Middle East has intensified.
The future of crude oil
In an instant, the US Central Command completed its 13th consecutive night of strikes in Iran, targeting military command centers, drone depots, communications networks, coast guard sites, and naval forces.
Centcom said the strikes were aimed at “reducing the threat Iran poses to civilian sailors and commercial vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz.”
“The international waterway remains open to navigation despite recent attacks from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. Commercial vessels continue to navigate freely in this route with the assistance of the US military,” the navy said in a statement.
“More than 50,000 US service members are currently serving in the Middle East.”
US President Donald Trump told Axios on Thursday that he was planning a “major attack” on Iran after the conflict in the Middle East shifted to a new battlefield in the Red Sea. The president said the proposed strikes would be bigger than anything seen in the war so far, and that Iran “hasn’t received enough pain yet.”
“I’m thinking of a very big attack. Bigger than before. I’m about to make a decision. We’re all ready,” he said in an interview.
It came after Trump said he would blame Iran for continuing attacks by the Tehran-backed Houthis in Yemen, after the militant group said it had hit two Saudi Arabian oil tankers in the Red Sea.
“If they do this again, the US will hold Iran accountable, saying the Houthis are Iran’s Surrogate and/or Proxy, and heavy military punishment will be inflicted on Iran and, of course, the Houthis, themselves,” he said in a Truth Social post.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said on Thursday it had attacked US military facilities in a US base in Jordan, according to media reports.
Speaking to reporters on Thursday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said that Trump’s approach to the Iran war is “head-in-the-eye.”
In a morning note on Friday, Daniela Hathorn, senior market analyst at capital.com, said increasing volatility in key shipping routes has created a “larger country risk premium” in oil markets.
“Investors’ sentiment has been dampened by ongoing disruptions in the Red Sea, where attacks on commercial vessels have raised concerns about global trade and energy security,” he said. “Combined with tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz, the development reinforced the view that geopolitical risks are unlikely to end anytime soon, keeping energy markets tight and inflation risks high.”
Meanwhile, Giovanni Staunovo, a strategist at UBS Global Wealth Management, said in a statement on Thursday that markets may be overestimating the oil market’s recovery from the conflict.
“We continue to expect that the process of restoring production in the Middle East will be slower than the market expects, as it requires an increase in incoming vessels,” he said. “As the conflict resumes, those conditions remain depressed. This should keep the oil market strong and prices supported.”
UBS sees Brent crude falling to $85 a barrel by the end of the year.
