Despite a rising stock market and improving inflation figures, the public is as depressed about the economy as it has been since just years after the pandemic and is increasingly worried about the cost of everyday goods, according to the latest CNBC All-America Economic Survey.
The result: the continuation of negative approval numbers for President Donald Trump is nevertheless a small advantage for Democrats when it comes to the public choice to control Congress.
A survey of 1,000 adults across the country, with a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1%, found that 61% of the public is pessimistic about the current economic situation and the outlook for the future. That’s the highest percentage since December 2023, when the country was just emerging from pandemic-era inflation. Only 25% are optimistic about the economy now and in the future.
Here are the full results from the survey
“Most voters expect things to get worse by a margin of 41/29%, leaving voters on a sour note about the midterm election cycle,” said Micah Roberts, a partner at Public Opinion Strategies, a Republican pollster.
In response to higher prices, 47% of the public report cutting back on essentials, such as food and medical care, up six points from the April survey.
Two-thirds say they are cutting back on non-essential purchases, such as eating out and entertainment, up 5 points. Americans also say they are cutting back on travel and using credit cards at a higher percentage than they did in April.
These numbers come amid recent declines in oil and gasoline prices and are in contrast to the steady and modest growth reported in retail sales nationally.
But the national numbers may be driven by the spending of the wealthy. The All-America survey finds that 60% of those with incomes under $30,000 cut back on their spending on essentials, compared to only 35% of those with incomes over $100,000.
Both Democratic and Republican pollsters said the small drop in gasoline prices over the past few weeks was not enough to offset the lingering effects of both recent and past price increases.
“People are still paying more for things than they were a year and a half ago, two years ago, and that’s just coming to mind that it’s still painful and it’s still very upsetting,” said Jay Campbell, a partner at Hart Research, a Democratic pollster.
Low grades in economics
Trump’s approval ratings remain underwater, though they were largely unchanged from a CNBC April poll.
The latest poll found the president’s approval at 40%, with 59% disapproving, 1 point worse than the April poll. 60% disapprove of his handling of the economy, compared to 38% who approve. Both changes are within the poll’s margin of error but, at 22, put the president in the most watershed of his political career.
The poll also found that the public disapproves of Trump’s handling of the war with Iran by a margin of 63% to 35%, and his handling of inflation and the cost of living by 68% to 31%.
Still, the Democratic Party has a 4-point advantage in the congressional polls, unchanged since April, as the party appears to be gaining modestly only from discontent over the economy and the war in Iran.
“It means the Democrats have a good advantage right now, five months into the election, but it’s not a huge advantage,” Campbell said. “It’s not pointing the wave at the moment and I think that’s my bottom line.”
Both pollsters point to a deeply divided electorate who are “locked in” to their parties and reluctant to switch sides no matter how worried they are about the economy. The study found that, for example, members participated and increased their support for the party they chose compared to April, especially they faced and which led to no change in the choice of all the control of the congress.
And it’s a place where each group defines the other to extremes and is successful in doing so.
Half of all voters say they are unlikely to support a Democratic Socialist candidate, while 32% say they will support one. The president’s approval rating is worse, as 52% said they would not support such a person. Worst of all are the people who call themselves MAGA strikers, a survey which found that 57% of the public said they were unlikely to support them.
Separate yourself from the news
In more pressing matters, both sides have their advantages.
The Democrats have a 7-point lead on the most important concern, the cost of food and groceries, and a 3-point lead on the second most important issue, “protecting democracy.”
But Republicans lead by 22 points on the third issue — immigration and border security — the biggest gain of any of the 10 issues on the list. That’s followed by a 6-point Democratic lead and an 18-point gain on health care spending.
Democrats, independents and women, especially women 18-49, rank food costs as a top priority. So are white voters and voters of color, and voters in all income groups, except for the highest income group who choose to “protect democracy.”
Republicans are the only major group of people for whom immigration is a top issue. Meanwhile, voters aged 18-34 are raising housing prices, with 46% saying it’s a big problem. Food costs for the younger group are a distant second at 33%.
Among the most prominent divisions in this survey is the one around war with Iran, which has lost support compared to the April survey.
Only 48% of the public believes that military action against Iran is worth disrupting the country’s ability to build nuclear weapons, down from 53% in April. Half of the country says it’s not worth it, up from 44% in the previous survey. The president’s overall approval rating on dealing with Iran fell to 28, 3 points worse than the previous survey.
Trump is under water with parts of his party over the Iran war. Only 47% of non-MAGA Republicans, representing nearly a third of the GOP, approve of the president’s handling of Iran, with 50% approving. In contrast, 86% of MAGA Republicans support the president’s handling of the issue.
