Sometimes the sun emits anger, and that anger attacks the Earth. For some people, that means a chance to see the beautiful aurora borealis light up the night sky. But solar storms can wreak havoc on Earth and various people and objects in space. This is because, according to new research, the dangers from solar storms may be worse than originally thought.
The study, written by Nithin Sivadas of NASA and Maria Walach of Lancaster University, states that the scientific understanding of solar storms and electric currents produced in the Earth’s upper atmosphere may have been misunderstood, and that solar storms may be very dangerous, especially for satellites and astronauts in orbit.
To understand the problem, understanding what the science is currently saying is important. When the solar wind hits the upper atmosphere, it creates all kinds of interactions, leading to effects like auroras and electricity. The current scientific consensus is that there is a high amount of potential electrical energy in the upper atmosphere due to factors such as the solar wind, wind restrictions and atmospheric saturation. Once that limit is reached, Earth’s magnetosphere naturally dissipates the excess.
But this new study suggests that the limit doesn’t really exist and that previous assumptions about it were based on “uncertainties in solar wind measurements.” That uncertainty likely arose because most measurements of the solar wind are taken by the spacecraft about a million miles closer to the sun than Earth, at a location known as Lagrange Point 1.
Measurements taken near Earth’s surface by NASA’s spacecraft show a direct correlation between the strength of the solar wind and the power of the atmosphere, and suggest that there is no upper limit as previously thought. That means the atmosphere can produce as much electricity as there is solar wind to produce it.
Extreme solar wind events can be observed far from the impact site in the form of the aurora borealis.
How much risk are we talking about?
It is not well understood how dangerous solar storms are compared to what science already knows. Solar storms have caused great damage in the past, with events like the Carrington Event in 1859 setting telegraph machines on fire or the solar storm of 12,350 BC, which researchers say is “orders of magnitude stronger than anything directly observed.” More research is still needed to understand the potential risks.
“If there is no upper limit to our planet’s response to the solar wind, large-scale modeling needs to take this into account, and we must be aware of the effects of atmospheric climate,” Walach said in a statement. “Fortunately, these extreme cases are rare, but this also means that we have limited data to work with and only time will tell what happens in such an extreme one-year event.”
Current measurements using the limitations described above already paint a very grim picture of our modern electronic existence. A solar storm of the magnitude of a Carrington event could level a significant number of Earth’s satellites and cause untold damage to systems here on Earth. And it wouldn’t be the first time: During the Halloween solar storm in 2003, Earth lost contact with 59% of its satellites at the time. Although modern technology is better at resisting these risks, it is not immune.
But there is good news. First, such a solar storm will not mean the end of mankind. Walach says that the Earth’s magnetic field “does an excellent job of shielding us from many of the effects of space weather,” and that most of the time, all people will notice is the occasional blackout or a beautiful aurora. He says satellites will not work very well in such bad weather in space.
The other good news is that the sun is nearing the end of its solar cycle in its current 11-year cycle (assuming it’s not over yet), so the chances of extreme weather are much lower than in 2024, when Earth was treated to a severe weather event that pushed the aurora borealis down in Texas for a week.
