MLB Mailbag: Gray, May, Arraez, Pages

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In this week’s Mailbag, we’re going to dive in Sonny GrayHis trade appointments and which clubs stand out as the best fit for him. We’ll also look at factors the Cardinals should consider when rating a Dustin May trade (and what is a realistic asking price for him), whether the Giants should trade or extend Luis Arraezagain Andy Pages‘ importance to the Dodgers during a career-best season.

Steve asks…

Will Sonny Days dream of Mr. Gray? Where do you see Boston potentially trading Sonny Gray?

The most popular guess answer you’ll see in the coming weeks will be Atlanta. Gray is a natural target for them — the Braves could use a solid, stable veteran who is a viable way to start the postseason — and Atlanta itself is less than a four-hour drive from Gray’s Nashville home. Geography has been a factor in past contract decisions; he signed an extension with the Reds immediately after being traded there in 2019, and signed his free agent deal with the Cardinals through the 2023-24 offseason.

The fit checks a lot of boxes, but it’s far from the only one that makes sense. Location may matter to Gray but it’s clearly not the be-all and end-all. He approved the trade in Boston back in November, after all. Atlanta is a real contender, but I expect the game to be more heavily pitched as a possibility than it actually is.

On the other hand, it seems fair to all but write off the Yankees. They are Boston’s rivals. Gray has stopped there in the past, and it didn’t go well. He had direct and controversial comments about the Yankees during his trade. Back in December, Gray said the Yankees weren’t a good fit for his family and that he “never wanted to go there in the first place.” That might be justified in itself, but he followed up by saying: “[I]It feels good for me to go to a place where, you know, it’s easy to hate the Yankees. It’s easy to go out and have that rivalry and go into it full force, full steam ahead. I like a challenge.”

That’s some low-hanging fruit. We’ll take a closer look at his potential market for a while. First, as an aside, I should say that I expect the Red Sox to eventually trade Gray. There are always warnings this time of year that the directions for the deadline can change in a few days. That’s the case with Boston, too, but I was skeptical of Boston’s schedule and back during spring training. (I still chose to make the playoffs. Whoops.) That’s when it made sense to expect big playoffs. Roman Anthonyrebound from Jarren Duran and at least something close to average production from Trevor’s story. Now, the Red Sox rank last in MLB with 301 runs. They have three regulars who posted average offensive numbers. They are buried in a section. The Rockies are the only team in MLB with fewer wins. The Sox may maintain an air of optimism in public comment, but all signs point to them being deadline sellers.

Second, it’s worth putting the basics on Gray. Almost any MLB fan is familiar with his extensive record, but there are some basics that make up his current situation. Gray is 36 (37 in November) and making $41MM this season. The Cardinals are already on the hook for $20MM of that. The Red Sox owe him $11MM in salary and a $10MM buyout for a 2027 joint option that cannot be exercised by either side. (Similar options don’t exist these days.) The new team will owe the remainder of that $11MM salary and $10MM in buyouts, but the Sox could kick in the cash to pay some of that down. Gray is sitting at a 2.95 ERA but has his lowest strikeout rate (21.1%) since 2018. His 6.4% walk rate is pretty good but still the highest since 2023. Metrics like SIERA (3.88) and FIP (3.81) feel that his ERA should be much higher. Gray is an excellent pitcher, but he’s closer to a middle rotation starter than an ace right now.

Now, let’s take a closer look at Grey’s potential rescuers and try to find his best and most loved landing spots.