A view of the Baglihar Dam, also known as the Baglihar Hydroelectric Power Project, on the Chenab River that flows from Indian Kashmir into Pakistan, in Chanderkote in Jammu district on May 6, 2025.
Character | Reuters
A year after their last military conflict, tensions between India and Pakistan are rising again, this time over access to the waters of the Indus River.
Pakistan’s defense minister warned on Friday that water security could become a trigger for war if Islamabad believes its national interests are threatened.
“When we feel that our national security is at risk, and water is part of our national security, we will go to war [with India],” said Khawaja Muhammad Asif, Pakistan’s defense minister, in an interview with local media on Friday.
He added, however, that what is happening now should not lead to military action.
The minister’s comments come as India pushes to terminate the 66-year-old Indus Water Treaty, which has been suspended since last year’s conflict between the nuclear-armed neighbors.
India’s Ministry of External Affairs said on June 5 that the agreement would remain suspended “until Pakistan completely stops cross-border terrorism.”
A few days later, India’s water resources minister, CR Patil, reinforced the government’s position, saying that New Delhi is working to ensure that “the flow of water from the Indus to Pakistan will stop” and that Pakistan will not receive “a single drop of water” in the coming years.
While India’s ability to “close the taps quickly remains technically limited,” the propaganda is important as it suggests that “water can be a tool of coercion,” Reema Bhattacharya, head of Asia research at Verisk Maplecroft, told CNBC in an email.
The Indus Water Treaty regulates the use of rivers in the Indus region, which is shared by India, Pakistan, Afghanistan and China. Under the agreement, India has unrestricted access to the eastern rivers of the basin while Pakistan gets rights to the western rivers.
The figures are much higher in Pakistan.
According to a report by the Washington-based think tank, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, nine out of 10 Pakistanis live within the Indus Basin. Its rivers irrigate more than 90% of the country’s crops and generate a lot of hydroelectric power. All of Pakistan’s 21 hydroelectric plants are located within the basin.
“This is not a small dependency – it is a pillar carrying the burdens of an already fragile economy in an IMF (International Monetary Fund) bailout,” said Arpit Chaturvedi, South Asia consultant at Teneo.
He added that India does not even need to cut off all flows to cause damage. Exploiting the timing of dam releases on western rivers could flood Pakistan’s farmland during planting seasons, while withholding water during critical irrigation windows could destroy crops.
“Pakistan has already written to India twice in 2025 and once in May 2026 regarding the unusual, sudden variation in the flow of the Chenab,” Chaturvedi said, adding that the window to resolve the issue through talks and negotiations is shrinking.
