Expert warns US-Iran deal faces major hurdles after recent closure of Strait of Hormuz – National
Iran’s announcement that it has closed the Strait of Hormuz raises new questions about the future of the faltering deal with the United States, as both sides prepare for another round of talks.
Iran said on Saturday it had blocked the waterway following Israel’s attack on Lebanon and what it described as the US’s failure to comply with obligations under the accord.
The United States disputed the claim, saying that Iran does not control the road and that commercial vehicles continue to travel through the area.
This happened when Iranian officials were on their way to Switzerland to discuss what could end up being a comprehensive agreement. US Vice President JD Vance also left for Switzerland on Saturday.
Alan Eyra, a former US ambassador, believes that lasting peace is still a long way off.
“We’re almost at the starting point. It’s going to be a long, slow process,” Eyra told Global News on Saturday morning.
“I’m not surprised. Israel didn’t sign the deal and wants to continue fighting Hezbollah and Iran.”
For security expert Christian Leuprecht, the disagreement is not surprising.
“They couldn’t even agree on signing this agreement,” he told Global News. “I think this is going to be very difficult.”
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Leuprecht, who is also the director of the Institute of Intergovernmental Relations at Queen’s University, said that the two sides seem to be pursuing different goals.
“The United States wants an agreement with Iran and Iran is trying to make this an agreement that includes its proxies in the region,” he said. One of these groups is Hezbollah.
The uncertainty comes as fighting continues in Lebanon. Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed at least 16 people on Saturday, according to Lebanese officials, and Israel says Hezbollah launched more than 50 rockets at its forces overnight.
Neither Israel nor Hezbollah signed the agreement between the United States and Iran.
“This ceasefire is fragile. And as we have seen, he comes and goes often.” Eyra said.
Calling the situation “difficult,” Leuprecht said U.S. President Donald Trump’s broader goal is to rebuild U.S. relations with Iran while reducing the amount of military resources devoted to the Middle East.
“The United States remains tied to the Middle East with its military assets when it should be sending those military assets to the Indo-Pacific to contain China,” he said.
Leuprecht also pointed out that the conflict exposed the challenges of the United States in achieving its strategic goals.
“The problem is, Iran has weakened the US a lot,” he said.
He added that the conflict could have a wider impact on the international system.
“So what we’re going to see is a very divided world. It’s a country that’s going to be very limited in marriage based on international laws and that’s going to change a lot because of that,” Leuprecht said.
He said that countries like Canada may end up facing difficult decisions about how they want to shape world affairs.
“If we don’t like the results we see in the United States, maybe we shouldn’t have done more than usual,” he said.
Eyre also had negotiators who doubted whether they would be able to reach a final agreement within the 60-day timeline outlined in the memorandum of understanding.
“The 60-day timeline is absurd,” he said.
“There is no way that there will be a negotiated agreement within 60 days, maybe 120 days. My belief is that the US and Iran will not be able to negotiate a deal on the nuclear issue.”
As negotiators prepare for talks in Switzerland, big questions remain about whether the interim deal can turn into a permanent deal.
